Player Spotlight ~ Arturo Estrella ~ Economics professor, mathematician, philosopher, violinist and violist

Opus 630, “Leduc” Guarneri del Gesù violin, 2009

Arturo Estrella τὸ δὲ κινούμενον κινουμένῳ γινώσκεσθαι -- Ἡράκλειτος
the moving world can only be known by what is in motion – Heraclitus

Arturo Estrella plays on Cox Violin #630, a “Leduc” model. Arturo is a member of the Adelphi Chamber Orchestra (violin, viola), the Siena Chamber Orchestra (principal viola), and the Siena Community String Quartet (violin, viola). He has also played with the Ridgewood Symphony Orchestra (double bass, violin, viola) and the String Ensemble of Rockland (violin). He studied violin with Guillermo Figueroa-Sanabia, violin and viola with Barbara Long, and double bass with Linda McKnight. As an undergraduate philosophy major, he took the music theory curriculum at Columbia University.

Arturo's Cox Violin Op. 630Born in Puerto Rico, Arturo holds advanced degrees in Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and Economics from University of Puerto Rico, University of Michigan and Harvard University. He makes his home in Troy, New York, where he is Professor of Economics and Head of the Economics Department at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Arturo has published extensively in various fields within economics, including macroeconomic theory, empirical macroeconomics, monetary policy, financial regulation, econometric theory, applied econometrics, and financial markets, instruments, and institutions. In 1988-89, he developed (with Gikas Hardouvelis) a probit model of the probability of a future recession. Since then, the model has correctly forecasted the last three U.S. recessions in real time with a lead time of about one year and no false positives.

He has also written extensively about financial regulation, proposing in 1995 an innovative system for bank capital regulation that has the potential to prevent systemic problems arising from the failure of large financial institutions. From 1991 to 2001, he represented the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in international negotiations on bank regulation under the auspices of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

In econometrics, Arturo derived a pseudo R-squared for dichotomous dependent variable models that outperforms other alternatives, including the classic McFadden measure. The measure has become part of the standard output in many widely-used econometric packages. He has also provided exact critical and probability values for use in time-series breakpoint tests in connection with generalized method of moments estimates.

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